“Results: Model validation confirmed 77% accuracy in predicting extinction risk of fossil corals. Extinction risk predicted by our model showed a near-random (57%) match with the IUCN conservation status. Our model also suggested that corals in the Least Concern or Near Threatened categories might be at higher risk of extinction than currently believed.
Main conclusions: Morphological traits of fossil corals linked to their extinction risk in the Plio-Pleistocene Caribbean Sea are known to reflect the vulnerability of extant corals. However, the results from our fossil-calibrated model do not match the IUCN assessment of reef corals, with increased overall extinction risk. This does not necessarily indicate near-future extinction risk, because fossil extinctions are spread over thousands of years. However, we show the applicability of using fossil data to inform the extinction risk of modern corals and recommend that future assessments of extinction risk of reef corals should consider incorporating the relationship between morphological traits and resilience, calibrated by fossil data, to maximize the utility of the extinction risk assessment.”
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